UK unemployment June suggests rate of job losses slowing

Unemployment claimant count basis increased by 23,800 in June to 1.560 million. The increase in May has been modified to just under thirty one thousand. Job losses in the first quarter were 280,000. In the second quarter job losses claimant count basis are around 100,000. Things are getting worse but at a much slower rate.

The broader Labour Force survey measure increased to 2.381 million in the three months to May compared to 2.261 million in the three months February to April, an unemployment rate of 7.6%. The number of vacancies was 429,000 down 15,000 in the month.  Average earnings excluding bonuses were 2.6% from 2.7%.

For the year as a whole, expectations have been modified slightly. Unemployment is expected to increase by a further 500,000 in 2009 and by a further 200,000 in 2010. Claimant count unemployment will rise to 2.1 million by the end of the year. The headline rate will be around 2.8 million rising to 3.0 million in 2010. The rate of unemployment is likely to rise to 9% this year and over 10.0% in 2010.

The GDP forecast is based on a slow down in GDP of -3.8% in 2009 and modest growth of 0.7% in 2010. This compares with a Treasury forecast of -3.5% in 2009 and a more pessimistic IMF forecast of -4.1% in 2009.

ONS - Labour Market Statistics

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